nestedcv
Myles Lewis, Athina Spiliopoulou, Katriona Goldmann
Introduction
The motivation for this package is to provide functions which help with the development and tuning of machine learning models in biomedical data where the sample size is frequently limited, but the number of predictors may be significantly larger (P >> n). While most machine learning pipelines involve splitting data into training and testing cohorts, typically 2/3 and 1/3 respectively. Medical datasets may be too small for this, and so determination of accuracy in the left-out test set suffers because the test set is small. Nested cross-validation (CV) provides a way to get round this, by maximising use of the whole dataset for testing overall accuracy, while maintaining the split between training and testing.
In addition typical biomedical datasets often have many 10,000s of possible predictors, so filtering of predictors is commonly needed. However, it has been demonstrated that filtering on the whole dataset creates a bias when determining accuracy of models (Vabalas et al, 2019). Feature selection of predictors should be considered an integral part of a model, with feature selection performed only on training data. Then the selected features and accompanying model can be tested on hold-out test data without bias. Thus, it is recommended that any filtering of predictors is performed within the CV loops, to prevent test data information leakage.
This package enables nested cross-validation (CV) to be performed
using the commonly used glmnet package, which fits elastic
net regression models, and the caret package, which is a
general framework for fitting a large number of machine learning models.
In addition, nestedcv adds functionality to enable
cross-validation of the elastic net alpha parameter when fitting
glmnet models.
nestedcv partitions the dataset into outer and inner
folds (default 10x10 folds). The inner fold CV, (default is 10-fold), is
used to tune optimal hyperparameters for models. Then the model is
fitted on the whole inner fold and tested on the left-out data from the
outer fold. This repeated across all outer folds (default 10 outer
folds), and the unseen test predictions from the outer folds are
compared against the true results for the outer test folds and the
results concatenated, to give measures of accuracy (e.g. AUC and
accuracy for classification, or RMSE for regression) across the whole
dataset.
Finally, the tuning parameters for each model in the outer folds are averaged to give the mean best parameters across all outer folds. A final model is fitted across the whole data using these final hyperparameters and can be used for prediction with external data.
Variable selection
While some models such as glmnet allow for sparsity and
have variable selection built-in, many models fail to fit when given
massive numbers of predictors, or perform poorly due to overfitting
without variable selection. In addition, in medicine one of the goals of
predictive modelling is commonly the development of diagnostic or
biomarker tests, for which reducing the number of predictors is
typically a practical necessity.
Several filter functions (t-test, Wilcoxon test, anova,
Pearson/Spearman correlation, random forest variable importance, and
ReliefF from the CORElearn package) for feature selection
are provided, and can be embedded within the outer loop of the nested
CV.
Installation
Install from Github (requires API token).
devtools::install_github("myles-lewis/nestedcv", auth_token = "API token...")
library(nestedcv)Examples
Importance of nested CV
The following simulated example demonstrates the bias intrinsic to datasets where P >> n when applying filtering of predictors to the whole dataset rather than to training folds.
## Example binary classification problem with P >> n
x <- matrix(rnorm(150 * 2e+04), 150, 2e+04) # predictors
y <- factor(rbinom(150, 1, 0.5)) # binary response
## Partition data into 2/3 training set, 1/3 test set
trainSet <- caret::createDataPartition(y, p = 0.66, list = FALSE)
## t-test filter using whole test set
filt <- ttest_filter(y, x, nfilter = 100)
filx <- x[, filt]
## Train glmnet on training set only using filtered predictor matrix
library(glmnet)
#> Loading required package: Matrix
#> Loaded glmnet 4.1-4
fit <- cv.glmnet(filx[trainSet, ], y[trainSet], family = "binomial")
## Predict response on test set
predy <- predict(fit, newx = filx[-trainSet, ], s = "lambda.min", type = "class")
predy <- as.vector(predy)
predyp <- predict(fit, newx = filx[-trainSet, ], s = "lambda.min", type = "response")
predyp <- as.vector(predyp)
output <- data.frame(testy = y[-trainSet], predy = predy, predyp = predyp)
## Results on test set
## shows bias since univariate filtering was applied to whole dataset
predSummary(output)
#> AUC Accuracy Balanced accuracy
#> 0.9310897 0.8600000 0.8605769
## Nested CV
fit2 <- nestcv.glmnet(y, x, family = "binomial", alphaSet = 7:10 / 10,
filterFUN = ttest_filter,
filter_options = list(nfilter = 100))
fit2
#> Nested cross-validation with glmnet
#> Filter: ttest_filter
#>
#> Final parameters:
#> lambda alpha
#> 0.000265 0.700000
#>
#> Final coefficients:
#> (Intercept) V75 V62 V32 V41 V40
#> 1.01868 1.05831 -1.05078 -1.02462 0.99844 -0.99091
#> V24 V18 V39 V96 V8 V15
#> -0.96345 0.92394 0.92054 -0.70946 0.70934 -0.68371
#> V27 V17 V38 V19 V73 V70
#> -0.67959 -0.65925 -0.61188 -0.60793 0.59993 0.59558
#> V87 V63 V83 V12 V29 V1
#> -0.59121 0.57667 -0.56596 0.54049 0.50516 0.50408
#> V97 V84 V82 V64 V3 V48
#> 0.49933 0.47859 -0.47682 0.46276 -0.45258 0.45154
#> V26 V43 V35 V25 V54 V21
#> -0.44994 -0.44416 -0.44398 0.41048 0.41002 -0.40789
#> V76 V31 V81 V9 V33 V65
#> -0.38937 -0.37480 0.37213 0.36149 -0.35836 0.35814
#> V47 V20 V98 V4 V92 V72
#> -0.35801 0.34741 0.33544 0.31613 -0.31289 -0.31135
#> V7 V69 V80 V37 V50 V10
#> -0.30533 0.28832 0.28226 -0.28178 -0.28092 -0.27982
#> V74 V53 V22 V58 V59 V46
#> -0.27935 0.26182 -0.25743 0.25684 -0.24854 0.24743
#> V94 V71 V66 V56 V14 V16
#> -0.24544 -0.22599 0.22309 0.20162 -0.18706 -0.17765
#> V85 V30 V77 V42 V34 V68
#> 0.17726 -0.17679 -0.16486 0.15818 -0.12371 -0.11430
#> V78 V61 V13 V67 V11 V45
#> -0.10301 -0.10134 0.08397 0.07697 -0.06212 0.05479
#> V52 V79 V60
#> -0.04938 0.04549 -0.01557
#>
#> Result:
#> AUC Accuracy Balanced accuracy
#> 0.4783 0.5133 0.5102
testroc <- pROC::roc(output$testy, output$predyp, direction = "<", quiet = TRUE)
inroc <- innercv_roc(fit2)
plot(fit2$roc)
lines(inroc, col = 'blue')
lines(testroc, col = 'red')
legend('bottomright', legend = c("Nested CV", "Left-out inner CV folds",
"Test partition, non-nested filtering"),
col = c("black", "blue", "red"), lty = 1, lwd = 2, bty = "n")
In this example the dataset is pure noise. Filtering of predictors on the whole dataset is a source of leakage of information about the test set, leading to substantially overoptimistic performance on the test set as measured by ROC AUC.
Figures A & B below show two commonly used, but biased methods in which cross-validation is used to fit models, but the result is a biased estimate of model performance. In scheme A, there is no hold-out test set at all, so there are two sources of bias/ data leakage: first, the filtering on the whole dataset, and second, the use of left-out CV folds for measuring performance. Left-out CV folds are known to lead to biased estimates of performance as the tuning parameters are ‘learnt’ from optimising the result on the left-out CV fold.
In scheme B, the CV is used to tune parameters and a hold-out set is used to measure performance, but information leakage occurs when filtering is applied to the whole dataset. Unfortunately this is commonly observed in many studies which apply differential expression analysis on the whole dataset to select predictors which are then passed to machine learning algorithms.
Figures C & D below show two valid methods for fitting a model with CV for tuning parameters as well as unbiased estimates of model performance. Figure C is a traditional hold-out test set, with the dataset partitioned 2/3 training, 1/3 test. Notably the critical difference between scheme B above, is that the filtering is only done on the training set and not on the whole dataset.
Figure D shows the scheme for fully nested cross-validation. Note that filtering is applied to each outer CV training fold. The key advantage of nested CV is that outer CV test folds are collated to give an improved estimate of performance compared to scheme C since the numbers for total testing are larger.
Nested CV with glmnet
In the real life example below, RNA-Sequencing gene expression data from synovial biopsies from patients with rheumatoid arthritis in the R4RA randomised clinical trial (Humby et al, 2021) is used to predict clinical response to the biologic drug rituximab. Treatment response is determined by a clinical measure, namely Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) 50% response, which has a binary outcome: treatment success or failure (response or non-response). This dataset contains gene expression on over 50,000 genes in arthritic synovial tissue from 133 individuals, who were randomised to two drugs (rituximab and tocilizumab). First, we remove genes of low expression using a median cut-off (this still leaves >16,000 genes), and we subset the dataset to the rituximab treated individuals (n=68).
# Raw RNA-Seq data for this example is located at:
# https://www.ebi.ac.uk/arrayexpress/experiments/E-MTAB-11611/
# set up data
load("/../R4RA_270821.RData")
index <- r4ra.meta$Outliers_Detected_On_PCA != "outlier" & r4ra.meta$Visit == 3
& !is.na(r4ra.meta$Visit)
metadata <- r4ra.meta[index, ]
dim(metadata) # 133 individuals
medians <- Rfast::rowMedians(as.matrix(r4ra.vst))
data <- t(as.matrix(r4ra.vst))
# remove low expressed genes
data <- data[index, medians > 6]
dim(data) # 16254 genes
# Rituximab cohort only
yrtx <- metadata$CDAI.response.status.V7[metadata$Randomised.medication == "Rituximab"]
yrtx <- factor(yrtx)
data.rtx <- data[metadata$Randomised.medication == "Rituximab", ]
# no filter
res.rtx <- nestcv.glmnet(y = yrtx, x = data.rtx,
family = "binomial", cv.cores = 8,
alphaSet = seq(0.7, 1, 0.05))
res.rtx## Nested cross-validation with glmnet
## No filter
##
## Final parameters:
## lambda alpha
## 0.1511 0.7950
##
## Final coefficients:
## (Intercept) AC016582.3 PCBP3 TMEM170B EIF4E3 SEC14L6 CEP85 APLF
## 0.8898659 -0.2676580 -0.2667770 0.2456329 0.2042326 -0.1992225 0.1076051 -0.1072684
## EARS2 PTK7 EFNA5 MEST IQANK1 MTATP6P1 GSK3B STK40
## -0.1036846 -0.0919594 -0.0882686 0.0769173 -0.0708992 0.0545392 0.0469272 0.0316988
## SUV39H2 AC005670.2 ZNF773 XIST STAU2 DIRAS3
## 0.0297370 0.0184851 -0.0170861 -0.0100934 0.0016182 -0.0009975
##
## Result:
## AUC Accuracy Balanced accuracy
## 0.7648 0.7059 0.6773Use summary() to see full information from the nested
model fitting. coef() can be used to show the coefficients
of the final fitted model. Filters can be used by setting the
filterFUN argument. Options for the filter function are
passed as a list through filter_options.
# t-test filter
res.rtx <- nestcv.glmnet(y = yrtx, x = data.rtx, filterFUN = ttest_filter,
filter_options = list(nfilter = 300, p_cutoff = NULL),
family = "binomial", cv.cores = 8,
alphaSet = seq(0.7, 1, 0.05))
summary(res.rtx)Output from the nested CV with glmnet can be plotted to show how deviance is affected by alpha and lambda.
plot_alphas(res.rtx)
plot_lambdas(res.rtx)
The tuning of alpha for each outer fold can be plotted.
# Fold 1 line plot
plot(res.rtx$outer_result[[1]]$cvafit)
# Scatter plot
plot(res.rtx$outer_result[[1]]$cvafit, type = 'p')
# Number of non-zero coefficients
plot(res.rtx$outer_result[[1]]$cvafit, xaxis = 'nvar')
ROC curves from left-out folds from both outer and inner CV can be plotted. Note that the AUC based on the left-out outer folds is the unbiased estimate of accuracy, while the left-out inner folds demonstrate bias due to the optimisation of the model’s hyperparameters on the inner fold data.
# Outer CV ROC
plot(res.rtx$roc, main = "Outer fold ROC", font.main = 1, col = 'blue')
legend("bottomright", legend = paste0("AUC = ", signif(pROC::auc(res.rtx$roc), 3)), bty = 'n')
# Inner CV ROC
rtx.inroc <- innercv_roc(res.rtx)
plot(rtx.inroc, main = "Inner fold ROC", font.main = 1, col = 'red')
legend("bottomright", legend = paste0("AUC = ", signif(pROC::auc(rtx.inroc), 3)), bty = 'n')
The overall expression level of each gene selected in the final model can be compared with a boxplot.
boxplot_model(res.rtx, data.rtx, ylab = "VST")
Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) can be performed on the outer folds.
# Outer LOOCV
res.rtx <- nestcv.glmnet(y = yrtx, x = data.rtx, min_1se = 0, filterFUN = ttest_filter,
filter_options = list(nfilter = 300, p_cutoff = NULL),
outer_method = "LOOCV",
family = "binomial", cv.cores = 8,
alphaSet = seq(0.7, 1, 0.05))
summary(res.rtx)Filters
Multiple filters for variable reduction are available including:
ttest_filter |
t-test |
wilcoxon_filter |
Wilcoxon (Mann-Whitney) test |
anova_filter |
one-way ANOVA |
correl_filter |
Pearson or Spearman correlation for regression modelling |
lm_filter |
linear model with covariates |
rf_filter |
random forest variable importance |
relieff_filter |
ReliefF and other methods available via CORElearn |
boruta_filter |
Boruta |
# Random forest filter
res.rtx <- nestcv.glmnet(y = yrtx, x = data.rtx, min_1se = 0.5, filterFUN = rf_filter,
filter_options = list(nfilter = 300),
family = "binomial", cv.cores = 8,
alphaSet = seq(0.7, 1, 0.05))
summary(res.rtx)
# ReliefF algorithm filter
res.rtx <- nestcv.glmnet(y = yrtx, x = data.rtx, min_1se = 0, filterFUN = relieff_filter,
filter_options = list(nfilter = 300),
family = "binomial", cv.cores = 8,
alphaSet = seq(0.7, 1, 0.05))
summary(res.rtx)Custom filter
It is fairly straightforward to create your own custom filter, which
can be embedded within the outer CV loops via
nestcv.glmnet, nestcv.train or
outercv. The function simply must be of the form
filter <- function(y, x, ...) {}Other arguments can be passed in to the filter function as a named
list via the filter_options argument. The function must
return a vector of indices of those predictors in x which
are to be retained for downstream model fitting as well as prediction on
left-out outer folds. Importantly the filter function is applied
independently to each outer CV fold and not run on the whole data.
Finally once the model performance has been calculated by nested CV. The filter is applied to the whole dataset when refitting the final model to the full dataset.
Nested CV with caret
Nested CV can also be performed using the caret package
framework written by Max Kuhn (https://topepo.github.io/caret/index.html). This enables
access to the large library of machine learning models available within
caret.
Here we use caret for tuning the alpha and lambda
parameters of glmnet.
# nested CV using caret
tg <- expand.grid(lambda = exp(seq(log(2e-3), log(1e0), length.out = 100)),
alpha = seq(0.8, 1, 0.1))
ncv <- nestcv.train(y = yrtx, x = data.rtx,
method = "glmnet",
savePredictions = "final",
filterFUN = ttest_filter, filter_options = list(nfilter = 300),
tuneGrid = tg, cv.cores = 8)
ncv$summary
# Plot ROC on outer folds
plot(ncv$roc)
# Plot ROC on inner LO folds
inroc <- innercv_roc(ncv)
plot(inroc)
pROC::auc(inroc)
# Extract coefficients of final fitted model
glmnet_coefs(ncv$final_fit$finalModel, s = ncv$finalTune$lambda)Notes on caret
It is important to realise that the train() function in
caret sets a parameter known as tuneLength to
3 by default, so the default tuning grid is minimal.
tuneLength can easily be increased to give a tuning grid of
greater granularity. Tuneable parameters for individual models can be
inspected using modelLookup(), while
getModelInfo() gives further information.
When fitting classification models, the usual default metric for
tuning model hyperparameters in caret is Accuracy. However,
with small datasets, accuracy is disproportionately affected by changes
in a single individual’s prediction outcome from incorrect to correctly
classified or vice versa. For this reason, we suggest using logLoss with
smaller datasets as it provides more stable measures of model tuning
behaviour. In nestedcv, when fitting classification models
with caret, the default metric is changed to use
logLoss.
We recommend that the results of tuning are plotted to understand whether parameters have a systematic effect on model accuracy. With small datasets tuning may pick parameters partially at random because of random fluctuations in measured accuracy during tuning, which may worsen noise surrounding performance than if they were fixed.
# Example tuning plot for outer fold 1
plot(ncv$outer_result[[1]]$fit, xTrans = log)
# ggplot2 version
ggplot(ncv$outer_result[[1]]$fit) +
scale_x_log10() Making predictions
For all of the nestedcv model training functions described above, predictions on new data can be made by referencing the final fitted object which is fitted to the whole dataset.
# for nestcv.glmnet object
preds <- predict(res.rtx, newdata = data.rtx, type = 'response')
# for nestcv.train object
preds <- predict(ncv, newdata = data.rtx)Bayesian shrinkage models
The two examples below implement Bayesian linear and logistic
regression models using the horseshoe prior over parameters to encourage
a sparse model. Models are fitted using the hsstan R
package, which performs full Bayesian inference through a
Stan implementation. In Bayesian inference model
meta-parameters such as the amount of shrinkage are also given prior
distributions and are thus directly learned from the data through
sampling. This bypasses the need to cross-validate results over a grid
of values for the meta-parameters, as would be required to find the
optimal lambda in a lasso or elastic net model.
However, Bayesian inference is computationally intensive. In
high-dimensional settings, with e.g. more than 10,000 biomarkers,
pre-filtering of inputs based on univariate measures of association with
the outcome may be beneficial. If pre-filtering of inputs is used then a
cross-validation procedure is needed to ensure that the data points used
for pre-filtering and model fitting differ from the data points used to
quantify model performance. The outercv() function is used
to perform univariate pre-filtering and cross-validate model performance
in this setting.
CAUTION should be used when setting the number of cores available for
parallelisation. The code will use the product of cv.cores
and mc.cores. The former controls parallelisation over
folds, while the latter controls parallelisation in the Bayesian
inference procedure. The default setting for hsstan is to
use 4 Markov chains for sampling. We recommend setting
options(mc.cores = 4) which will parallelise computation
over the chains. If we are also using a 10-fold cross-validation
procedure, and set cv.cores = 10 to parallelise computation
over folds, then 40 cores will be used in total.
Linear regression with a Bayesian shrinkage model (continuous outcomes)
We use cross-validation and apply univariate filtering of predictors and model fitting in one part of the data (training fold), followed by evaluation of model performance on the left-out data (testing fold), repeated in each fold.
Only one cross-validation split is needed (function
outercv) as the Bayesian model does not require
cross-validation for meta-parameters.
# specify options for running the code
nfolds <- 3
# specify number of cores for parallelising computation
# the product of cv.cores and mc.cores will be used in total
# number of cores for parallelising over CV folds
cv.cores <- 1
# number of cores for parallelising hsstan sampling
# to pass CRAN package checks we need to create object oldopt
# in the end we reset options to the old configuration
oldopt <- options(mc.cores = 2)
# load iris dataset and simulate a continuous outcome
data(iris)
dt <- iris[, 1:4]
colnames(dt) <- c("marker1", "marker2", "marker3", "marker4")
dt <- as.data.frame(apply(dt, 2, scale))
dt$outcome.cont <- -3 + 0.5 * dt$marker1 + 2 * dt$marker2 + rnorm(nrow(dt), 0, 2)
# unpenalised covariates: always retain in the prediction model
uvars <- "marker1"
# penalised covariates: coefficients are drawn from hierarchical shrinkage prior
pvars <- c("marker2", "marker3", "marker4") # penalised covariates
# run cross-validation with univariate filter and hsstan
res.cv.hsstan <- outercv(y = dt$outcome.cont, x = dt[, c(uvars, pvars)],
model = model.hsstan,
filterFUN = lm_filter,
filter_options = list(force_vars = uvars,
nfilter = 2,
p_cutoff = NULL,
rsq_cutoff = 0.9),
n_outer_folds = nfolds, cv.cores = cv.cores,
unpenalized = uvars, warmup = 1000, iter = 2000)
# view prediction performance based on testing folds
summary(res.cv.hsstan)
#> Single cross-validation to measure performance
#> Outer loop: 3-fold CV
#> No inner loop
#> 150 observations, 4 predictors
#> Model: model.hsstan
#> Filter: lm_filter
#> n.filter
#> Fold 1 3
#> Fold 2 3
#> Fold 3 3
#>
#> Final fit: mean sd 2.5% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
#> (Intercept) -2.81 0.17 -3.14 -2.49 3681 1
#> marker1 0.47 0.27 -0.14 0.97 3704 1
#> marker2 2.00 0.19 1.64 2.38 4259 1
#> marker3 0.06 0.24 -0.38 0.71 3592 1
#>
#> Result:
#> RMSE Rsquared MAE
#> 2.0571 0.4812 1.6257
# load hsstan package to examine the Bayesian model
library(hsstan)
#> hsstan 0.8.1: using 2 cores, set 'options(mc.cores)' to change.
sampler.stats(res.cv.hsstan$final_fit)
#> accept.stat stepsize divergences treedepth gradients warmup sample
#> chain:1 0.9925 0.0198 0 8 199216 0.92 1.05
#> chain:2 0.9875 0.0259 0 8 141552 0.90 0.73
#> chain:3 0.9925 0.0186 0 8 212288 0.87 1.12
#> chain:4 0.9970 0.0116 0 9 321064 0.92 1.73
#> all 0.9924 0.0190 0 9 874120 3.61 4.63
print(projsel(res.cv.hsstan$final_fit), digits = 4) # adding marker2
#> Model KL ELPD
#> Intercept only 0.33490 -370.79934
#> Initial submodel 0.32807 -370.31822
#> marker2 0.00099 -320.14856
#> marker3 0.00000 -320.22519
#> var kl rel.kl.null rel.kl elpd delta.elpd
#> 1 Intercept only 0.334905 0.00000 NA -370.8 -50.57415
#> 2 Initial submodel 0.328068 0.02041 0.000 -370.3 -50.09304
#> 3 marker2 0.000989 0.99705 0.997 -320.1 0.07662
#> 4 marker3 0.000000 1.00000 1.000 -320.2 0.00000
options(oldopt) # reset optionsHere adding marker2 improves the model fit: substantial
decrease of KL-divergence from the full model to the submodel. Adding
marker3 does not improve the model fit: no decrease of
KL-divergence from the full model to the submodel.
Logistic regression with a Bayesian shrinkage model (continuous outcomes)
We use cross-validation and apply univariate filtering of predictors and model fitting in one part of the data (training fold), followed by evaluation of model performance on the left-out data (testing fold), repeated in each fold.
Only one cross-validation split is needed (function
outercv) as the Bayesian model does not require
cross-validation for meta-parameters.
# sigmoid function
sigmoid <- function(x) {1 / (1 + exp(-x))}
# specify options for running the code
nfolds <- 3
# specify number of cores for parallelising computation
# the product of cv.cores and mc.cores will be used in total
# number of cores for parallelising over CV folds
cv.cores <- 1
# number of cores for parallelising hsstan sampling
# to pass CRAN package checks we need to create object oldopt
# in the end we reset options to the old configuration
oldopt <- options(mc.cores = 2)
# load iris dataset and create a binary outcome
set.seed(267)
data(iris)
dt <- iris[, 1:4]
colnames(dt) <- c("marker1", "marker2", "marker3", "marker4")
dt <- as.data.frame(apply(dt, 2, scale))
rownames(dt) <- paste0("sample", c(1:nrow(dt)))
dt$outcome.bin <- sigmoid(0.5 * dt$marker1 + 2 * dt$marker2) > runif(nrow(dt))
dt$outcome.bin <- factor(dt$outcome.bin)
# unpenalised covariates: always retain in the prediction model
uvars <- "marker1"
# penalised covariates: coefficients are drawn from hierarchical shrinkage prior
pvars <- c("marker2", "marker3", "marker4") # penalised covariates
# run cross-validation with univariate filter and hsstan
res.cv.hsstan <- outercv(y = dt$outcome.bin,
x = as.matrix(dt[, c(uvars, pvars)]),
model = model.hsstan,
filterFUN = ttest_filter,
filter_options = list(force_vars = uvars,
nfilter = 2,
p_cutoff = NULL,
rsq_cutoff = 0.9),
n_outer_folds = nfolds, cv.cores = cv.cores,
unpenalized = uvars, warmup = 1000, iter = 2000)
# view prediction performance based on testing folds
summary(res.cv.hsstan)
#> Single cross-validation to measure performance
#> Outer loop: 3-fold CV
#> No inner loop
#> 150 observations, 4 predictors
#> Model: model.hsstan
#> Filter: ttest_filter
#> n.filter
#> Fold 1 3
#> Fold 2 3
#> Fold 3 3
#>
#> Final fit: mean sd 2.5% 97.5% n_eff Rhat
#> (Intercept) 0.09 0.20 -0.30 0.48 3570 1
#> marker1 0.39 0.33 -0.42 0.94 3388 1
#> marker2 1.76 0.34 1.15 2.46 3969 1
#> marker3 0.14 0.33 -0.29 1.10 2888 1
#>
#> Result:
#> AUC Accuracy Balanced accuracy
#> 0.8127 0.7467 0.7468
# examine the Bayesian model
sampler.stats(res.cv.hsstan$final_fit)
#> accept.stat stepsize divergences treedepth gradients warmup sample
#> chain:1 0.9910 0.0358 0 7 107952 0.68 0.85
#> chain:2 0.9952 0.0275 0 8 129032 0.71 1.01
#> chain:3 0.9896 0.0426 0 7 91872 0.83 0.71
#> chain:4 0.9936 0.0309 0 7 117480 0.73 0.88
#> all 0.9923 0.0342 0 8 446336 2.95 3.45
print(projsel(res.cv.hsstan$final_fit), digits = 4) # adding marker2
#> Model KL ELPD
#> Intercept only 0.18519 -104.24943
#> Initial submodel 0.17839 -103.92563
#> marker2 0.00132 -76.74973
#> marker3 0.00000 -76.69643
#> var kl rel.kl.null rel.kl elpd delta.elpd
#> 1 Intercept only 1.852e-01 0.00000 NA -104.25 -27.5530
#> 2 Initial submodel 1.784e-01 0.03673 0.0000 -103.93 -27.2292
#> 3 marker2 1.316e-03 0.99289 0.9926 -76.75 -0.0533
#> 4 marker3 6.320e-18 1.00000 1.0000 -76.70 0.0000
options(oldopt) # reset optionsHere adding marker2 improves the model fit: substantial
decrease of KL-divergence from the full model to the submodel. Adding
marker3 does not improve the model fit: no decrease of
KL-divergence from the full model to the submodel.
Parallelisation
Currently nestcv.glmnet, nestcv.train and
outercv all allow parallelisation of the outer CV loop
using mclapply from the parallel package on
unix/mac and parLapply on windows. This is enabled by
specifying the number of cores using the argument cv.cores.
Since in some cases the filtering process can be time consuming
(e.g. rf_filter, relieff_filter), we tend to
recommend parallelisation of the outer CV loop over parallelisation of
the inner CV loop.
The caret package is set up for parallelisation using
foreach (https://topepo.github.io/caret/parallel-processing.html).
We generally do not recommend nested parallelisation of both outer and
inner loops, although this is theoretically feasible if you have enough
cores. If P processors are registered with the parallel
backend, some caret functionality leads to
P2 processes being generated. We generally find this
does not lead to much speed up once the number of processes reaches the
number of physical cores, as all processors are saturated and there is
both time and memory overheads for duplicating data and packages for
each process.
Note at time of writing, there appears to be a bug in
rstan (used by hsstan) leading to it ignoring
the argument cores and instead spawning multiple processes
as specified by the chain argument. This behaviour can be
limited by setting options(mc.cores = ..).
References
Humby F, Durez P, Buch MH, et al. Rituximab versus tocilizumab in anti-TNF inadequate responder patients with rheumatoid arthritis (R4RA): 16-week outcomes of a stratified, biopsy-driven, multicentre, open-label, phase 4 randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2021;397(10271):305-317.
Rivellese F, Surace AEA, Goldmann K, et al, Lewis MJ, Pitzalis C and the R4RA collaborative group. Rituximab versus tocilizumab in rheumatoid arthritis: Synovial biopsy-based biomarker analysis of the phase 4 R4RA randomized trial. Nature medicine 2022. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01789-0
Vabalas A, Gowen E, Poliakoff E, Casson AJ. Machine learning algorithm validation with a limited sample size. PloS one. 2019;14(11):e0224365.